Senior Manager, US Forecasting Job at Amgen (Thousand Oaks)

Job Description

The Forecasting team at Amgen plays a pivotal role as a strategic partner to Commercial leadership, offering data-backed insights crucial for driving commercial success. As a Forecasting Senior Manager, you will contribute significantly to our inline brand strategy, executing and managing discussions with brand leads and commercial leaders. The individual in this role will need to strategically influence and challenge a diverse set of collaborators from Commercial, R&D, Medical, Finance, Manufacturing, Access, and Pricing/Contracting, while proficiently understanding the nuances of the particular disease area of interest and markets they support. This role reports to the Director of Forecasting and operates within the broader framework of Business Analytics and Insights (BAI). Flexible Commuter role to Thousand Oaks office. You will work on-site 2-3 days a week.

Job Responsibility

Ability to build detailed and advanced forecast model (patient, Rx, sales, Rx Based, etc.) projecting units and revenue for our inline products by indication/regions
Use advanced simulation models (e.g., Monte Carlo analysis, statistical trending) to quantify uncertainty
Leverage diverse pharmaceutical data sources and their nuances to enhance forecasting approaches and methodologies
Leads methodology development and ensures consistency across multiple brand forecasts
Designs forecasting frameworks adaptable for 'what-if' and scenario planning
Analyze competitors and market dynamics to inform forecasting models and strategic decisions
Develop an objective brand strategy by integrating insights across multiple functions and capability areas
Interprets policy and pricing changes (e.g., IRA, access shifts) and quantifies their impact
Act as the key point of contact for global brand leads, engaging them in forecasting deliverables
Facilitate discussions and build consensus among partners to establish clear and rigorous worldwide sales expectations for pipeline assets
Advises cross-functional teams on implications of clinical milestones and competitive events
Owns multi-brand forecasts
challenges entrenched assumptions
drives process improvements across cycles
Support leadership in identifying actionable strategies to improve Commercial potential, prioritizing risks and opportunities
Provide informed recommendations on product development continuation or discontinuation based on market conditions, financial projections, and strategic goals
Maintains awareness of broader market dynamics and integrates them into TA-level forecasts
Develop and deliver transparent presentations that articulate key variables in the forecast, ensuring comprehensive understanding for decision-makers
Use communication and interpersonal skills to influence leadership on recommended courses of action
Narrates drivers of forecast change
frames forecasts in terms of strategic risks and opportunities
Collaborate with the broader BAI organization to integrate comprehensive insights and analytics knowledge into forecast development
Improve the depth and accuracy of forecasts by leveraging a broad spectrum of insights across the organization
Explores AI/ML and automation
identifies team capability gaps and builds skills
Drive productivity and efficiency by streamlining forecasting processes where possible
Oversees deliverables across brands/assets
ensures forecasts are auditable and scalable

Requirements

Doctorate degree and 2 years of Pharma/Biotech forecasting, demand planning, or supply chain management experience
Master's degree and 4 years of Pharma/Biotech forecasting, demand planning, or supply chain management experience
Bachelor's degree and 6 years of Pharma/Biotech forecasting, demand planning, or supply chain management experience
Associate's degree and 10 years of Pharma/Biotech forecasting, demand planning, or supply chain management experience
High school diploma / GED and 12 years of Pharma/Biotech forecasting, demand planning, or supply chain management experience

Nice to have

Ability to quickly establish credibility with and influence ED/VP level staff
Knowledge and experience working with industry internal and secondary data sources
experience doing analog and uptake curve analysis
Proficiency in advanced forecasting techniques, statistical modeling, and data analysis
Highly skilled in working collaboratively in a team-based environment and gaining alignment across an organization
High level of proficiency in Excel, PowerPoint, Word
Excellent communication skills with the ability to present complex data and insights to both technical and non-technical partners
Ability to interpret and analyze data trends, identify patterns, and make data-driven decisions
Experience in contributing to the development of long-term business plans based on forecasting insights

What we offer

Health and welfare plans for staff and eligible dependents
Financial plans with opportunities to save towards retirement or other goals
Work/life balance
Career development opportunities
A comprehensive employee benefits package, including a Retirement and Savings Plan with generous company contributions, group medical, dental and vision coverage, life and disability insurance, and flexible spending accounts
A discretionary annual bonus program, or for field sales representatives, a sales-based incentive plan
Stock-based long-term incentives
Award-winning time-off plans
Flexible work models, including remote and hybrid work arrangements, where possible

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Senior Manager, US Forecasting

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