Senior Manager Marketing Analytics Forecaster Job at SimpliSafe (Boston)

Job Description

SimpliSafe is seeking a highly motivated, detail-oriented Senior Manager, Marketing Analytics to build, maintain, and continuously improve forecasts for the company’s most critical DTC metrics: sales, subscriptions, and key unit economics. This is a high-ownership, high-visibility individual contributor role. You will be the primary owner of daily and monthly forecasting, and a key contributor to quarterly outlooks and planning. You’ll partner with Marketing, Finance/FP&A, Supply Chain/Operations and Product to ensure forecasts are trusted, decision-ready, and tightly connected to real business levers. You’ll develop a deep understanding of the end-to-end customer funnel and subscriber lifecycle, translate promotions and marketing plans into forecastable drivers, and improve accuracy through better models, stronger assumptions, and systematic error analysis. You will be expected to proactively surface risks/opportunities and provide leadership with clear narratives on what changed, why, and what to do next.

Job Responsibility

Own daily and monthly forecasts for: traffic/leads, orders, activations/installs, new subscribers, ARPU, and revenue
Produce and publish weekly/monthly/quarterly forecast updates with clear assumptions, versioning, and stakeholder-ready outputs
Maintain a driver tree that connects controllable inputs (media, promos, pricing, channel mix) to outcomes (sales, subscribers, revenue)
Build and maintain forecasting models (time series + causal drivers) that incorporate seasonality, promo calendars, pricing/offer changes, channel mix, and operational constraints
Layer assumption-driven adjustments on top of model outputs when business context changes (new promo mechanics, product launches, macro shifts), and document the “why.”
Develop scenario plans (base/upside/downside) and sensitivities for media spend, promo depth, pricing changes, and macro/competitive shifts
Translate marketing plans into forecast inputs: spend by channel, expected reach/response, lags, saturation/diminishing returns
Incorporate incrementality learnings (A/B, geo, lift tests) and/or MMM/MTA outputs into response curves and forecast drivers—explicitly separating correlated performance from expected incremental impact
Partner on media measurement and marketing performance analytics: design and analyze incrementality tests (A/B, holdouts, geo/lift), partner on MMM/MTA, and translate results into response curves, CAC/ROAS benchmarks, and planning assumptions
Diagnose funnel shifts (conversion, approval, attach) and lifecycle shifts (retention/churn) and explain performance in plain language
Own reporting that ties operating forecasts to Direct P&L outcomes (sales, subscription, revenue and unit economics), including clear bridges of forecast vs actuals
Ensure consistent metric definitions and reconciliations across systems (billing, marketing, finance), with an audit-friendly methodology and change log
Provide leadership with a tight “forecast vs actuals” story: what moved, what drove it, and what actions are recommended
Own forecast performance tracking (e.g., WAPE/MAPE, bias) and run root-cause error decomposition by channel/promo/segment/horizon
Implement improvements: better features/drivers, segmentation/cohorts, hierarchical forecasts, improved promo pull-forward treatment, anomaly detection/alerting, and automation
Partner with Analytics Engineering to improve pipeline reliability, speed, and data quality—reducing manual effort and increasing trust

Requirements

Bachelor’s degree in a quantitative field (Statistics, Mathematics, Economics, Computer Science, Operations/Supply Chain, Business Analytics). Master’s/MBA preferred
7+ years in forecasting, planning, or advanced analytics (with exposure to marketing measurement/analytics)
strong preference for DTC and/or subscription businesses
Advanced SQL and Python are required (complex data extraction, transformation, modeling, automation, reproducible analysis)
Strong forecasting toolkit: time series, regression/causal modeling, scenario/sensitivity modeling
experience with hierarchical forecasting a plus
Strong grasp of marketing effectiveness measurement (incrementality, attribution limitations, media response, saturation)
Experience analyzing experiments (A/B, holdouts, geo tests) and translating results into planning assumptions
Strong Excel/Google Sheets skills for stakeholder-ready scenario models
BI proficiency (Tableau preferred) for both dashboard building and self-serve reporting
Executive-ready communicator turns complex modeling into clear decisions, tradeoffs, and recommendations
Strong business judgment in DTC/subscription mechanics: funnel dynamics, subscriber lifecycle, pricing/promotions, and operational constraints that affect realized demand and revenue
Self-starter with high ownership independently identifies problems/opportunities, drives work to completion, and escalates risks early
Thrives in ambiguity defines problems, builds structure, and delivers on a cadence without being micromanaged
Influences without authority builds alignment across Marketing, Finance, Operations, Product, and Engineering
Process-minded: builds repeatable systems, documentation, and governance others will use

Nice to have

Master’s/MBA preferred
experience with hierarchical forecasting a plus

What we offer

A mission- and values-driven culture and a safe, inclusive environment where you can build, grow and thrive
A comprehensive total rewards package that supports your wellness and provides security for SimpliSafers and their families
Free SimpliSafe system and professional monitoring for your home
Employee Resource Groups (ERGs) that bring people together, give opportunities to network, mentor and develop, and advocate for change
participation in our annual bonus program, equity, and other forms of compensation, in addition to a full range of medical, retirement, and lifestyle benefits

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Senior Manager Marketing Analytics Forecaster

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