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Kalshi is seeking a Senior Data Scientist to own and define the company’s Customer Lifetime Value (LTV) framework as a core strategic input to growth and product decisions. This individual will ensure LTV reflects durable, structural drivers of customer value - not short-term seasonality or promotional noise. They will serve as Kalshi’s authority on long-term value, building models that generalize across geographies and regulatory environments, and translating nuanced analysis into clear guidance for leadership as the company scales.
Job Responsibility:
Design LTV models that capture structural—not just seasonal—value
Separate long-term signal from short-term promotions and seasonality
Model retention and monetization dynamics that persist across cycles
Stress-test models across cohorts launched in different macro and regulatory regimes
Incorporate high-granularity features
Build user- and cohort-level models that account for geography, regulatory or market-specific constraints, behavioral and product-usage signals
Explicitly model heterogeneity rather than relying on global averages
Ensure durability and generalization
Validate models across multiple years, product launches, and seasonal cycles
Monitor stability, drift, and cohort aging effects
Revisit assumptions as the business and user base evolve
Operationalize nuanced LTV
Make LTV actionable at different resolutions (user, cohort, geo, channel)
Partner with Growth to avoid overfitting CAC decisions to short-term spikes
Align with Finance on long-range forecasting assumptions
Be the voice of judgment
Push back against simplistic or purely seasonal interpretations of value
Clearly communicate uncertainty, confidence intervals, and limitations
Prevent misuse of early-cohort or promotion-inflated signals
Requirements:
5–8+ years of experience as a Data Scientist in a consumer marketplace with meaningful seasonality
Proven ownership of an LTV model that lived in production for multiple years, survived multiple seasonal cycles, and informed real budget, growth, or product decisions
Deep experience with cohort-based modeling and survival analysis
Deep experience with feature-rich segmentation (geo, behavior, product mix)
Deep experience with de-biasing early lifecycle and promotion-heavy data
Strong SQL and Python (or R)
comfortable working with large-scale feature pipelines
Demonstrated ability to explain why a model generalizes—not just that it performs